Search results for "Optimal decision"

2013

To identify factors limiting performance in multitone intensity discrimination, we presented sequences of five pure tones alternating in level between loud (85 dB SPL) and soft (30, 55, or 80 dB SPL). In the “overall-intensity task”, listeners detected a level increment on all of the five tones. In the “masking task”, the level increment was imposed only on the soft tones, rendering the soft tones targets and loud tones task-irrelevant maskers. Decision weights quantifying the importance of the five tone levels for the decision were estimated using methods of molecular psychophysics. Compatible with previous studies, listeners placed higher weights on the loud tones than on the soft tones i…

Survey of methods to visualize alternatives in multiple criteria decision making problems

2012

When solving decision problems where multiple conflicting criteria are to be considered simultaneously, decision makers must compare several different alternatives and select the most preferred one. The task of comparing multidimensional vectors is very demanding for the decision maker without any support. Different graphical visualization tools can be used to support and help the decision maker in understanding similarities and differences between the alternatives and graphical illustration is a very important part of decision support systems that are used in solving multiple criteria decision making problems. The visualization task is by no means trivial because, on the one hand, the grap…

NAUTILUS method: An interactive technique in multiobjective optimization based on the nadir point

2010

Most interactive methods developed for solving multiobjective optimization problems sequentially generate Pareto optimal or nondominated vectors and the decision maker must always allow impairment in at least one objective function to get a new solution. The NAUTILUS method proposed is based on the assumptions that past experiences affect decision makers’ hopes and that people do not react symmetrically to gains and losses. Therefore, some decision makers may prefer to start from the worst possible objective values and to improve every objective step by step according to their preferences. In NAUTILUS, starting from the nadir point, a solution is obtained at each iteration which dominates t…

Deriving Reference Decisions

1998

To solve a statistical decision problem from a Bayesian viewpoint, the decision maker must specify a probability distribution on the parameter space, his prior distribution. In order to analyze the influence of this prior distribution on the solution of the problem, Bernardo (1981) proposed to compare the results with those that one would obtain by using that prior distribution which maximizes the useful experimental information, thus introducing the concept of reference decision. This definition is too involved for most of the problems usually found in practice. Here we analyze situations in which it is possible to simplify the definition of the reference decision, and we provide condition…

A Generalization of the Mean-Variance Analysis

2008

In this paper we consider a decision maker whose utility function has a kink at the reference point with different functions below and above this reference point. We also suppose that the decision maker generally distorts the objective probabilities. First we show that the expected utility function of this decision maker can be approximated by a function of mean and partial moments of distribution. This "mean-partial moments" utility generalizes not only the mean-variance utility of Tobin and Markowitz, but also the mean-semivariance utility of Markowitz. Then, in the spirit of Arrow and Pratt, we derive an expression for a risk premium when risk is small. Our analysis shows that a decision…

A multiple criteria decision model for analyzing and choosing among different development patterns for the Helsinki cargo harbor

1999

Abstract This paper describes a real application of a multicriteria approach to choosing among different options for developing the Helsinki harbor. In addition to the environmental impact assessment procedure, an analysis of the alternatives using the SMAA-method (Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis) is carried out. The method applied here has been developed for situations in which the use of decision-makers’ preference information is not possible. Instead, the problem is described by typical weight vectors leading to each solution, taking into account the evident uncertainty embedded in the criteria values.

Decision-aid for discrete multiple criteria decision making problems with imprecise data

1999

Abstract We describe ways of aiding decision making with a discrete set of alternatives. In many decision situations, it is not possible to obtain explicit preference information from the decision makers. Instead, useful decision-aid can be provided to the decision makers by describing what kind of weighting of the criteria result in certain choices of the alternatives. The suggested treatment is based on the basic ideas of the ELECTRE III method. The modelling of the preferences by pseudo-criteria is especially helpful in case the data, that is, the criterion values are imprecise. Unlike ELECTRE III, no ranking of the alternatives is produced. Based on a minimum-procedure in the exploitati…

Multi-Criteria Decision Making support system for pancreatic islet transplantation

2011

Pancreatic islet transplantation consists of replacing insulin-producing cells to restore normal glycemia in diabetic patients. This is a minimal invasive procedure that has been proved successful. Unfortunately unpredictability of islet transplant outcome remains a frustrating and costly issue limiting the clinical implementation of this procedure. Multiple variables are involved in the procedure and assessment is subjective to individual operators. The aim of this study was to generate a system expressing the probability of transplant success in relation to four classes of identified variables (donor, organ, isolation and recipient). We have proposed the utilization of Multi-Criteria Deci…

J-MADeM, a market-based model for complex decision problems

2010

This paper presents J-MADeM, a multi-modal decision making mechanism to provide agents in a Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) with a market-based model for complex decision problems. J-MADeM is now available as an open source library fully integrated into Jason, the successful interpreter for the AgentSpeak programming language. The aim of this work is to improve Jason by incorporating an agent decision-making module able to merge multiple information sources received from the rest of the agents. This information is modeled as a set of utility functions expressing the preferences of the agents for a specific problem. Then, J-MADeM agents use one-round sealed-bid combinatorial auctions as the main p…

Practical Financial Optimization: A Library of GAMS Models

2010

In Practical Financial Optimization: A Library of GAMS Models, the authors provide a diverse set of models for portfolio optimization, based on the General Algebraic Modelling System. 'GAMS' consists of a language which allows a high-level, algebraic representation of mathematical models and a set of solvers --- numerical algorithms --- to solve them. The system was developed in response to the need for powerful and flexible front-end tools to manage large, real-life models. The work begins with an overview of the structure of the GAMS language, and discusses issues relating to the management of data in GAMS models. The authors provide models for mean-variance portfolio optimization which a…